Boeing has released a forecast that airlines in Southeast Asia will need 4,500 new airplanes over the next 20 years, valued at US$710 billion at list prices, with single-aisle aircraft continuing to be the main driver of capacity growth. This figure would create a massive opportunity for the aircraft interiors industry. This growth would also help to stimulate the demand for commercial aviation services, which are forecasted to be worth US$785 billion between 2019 and 2038.
“Three countries from Southeast Asia – Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia – made the top 10 list of countries that added the most airline seat capacity since 2010. Vietnam has experienced the strongest growth out of the three at nearly 15% per year, followed by Thailand and Indonesia at approximately 10% respectively,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing. “With an expanding middle class, in a market that continues to liberalise, coupled with a strong domestic, regional and international tourism sector, Southeast Asia has become one of the world’s largest aviation markets.”
While single-aisle airplanes dominate the forecast, this region will also require a significant amount of widebody airplanes, in terms of value and the number of units. According to Boeing’s report, the demand is driven by airlines adapting to the evolving business environment and new long-haul expansion opportunities. Widebody airplanes will make up 19% of new airplane deliveries, enabling carriers in the region to serve new international long-range city pairs.
Aviation growth in the region is expected to drive the need for 182,000 commercial pilots, cabin crew, and aviation technicians to fly and to maintain the airplane fleet across Southeast Asia. This demand is projected based on a mix of new airplane deliveries, annual aircraft utilisation rates, crewing requirements by region and regulatory requirements.
In the air cargo sector, after declines in 2019, Boeing projects that global freight volumes will recover in 2020, due in large part to solid industrial production and world trade. Over the long-term, air cargo is projected to grow 4.2% through the forecast period. Freighters will remain the backbone of the cargo industry, with a projected need for 1,040 new and 1,780 converted freighters over the next 20 years.
Worldwide, Boeing projects the need for 44,040 new commercial airplanes valued at US$6.8 trillion and demand for aftermarket services totaled at US$9.1 trillion over the next 20 years. The complete forecast is available HERE.
